News

Overview of finished product transaction
Screw thread: the wire rod price in Hebei market dropped from high to low: Anfeng dropped by 20, Jiujiang dropped by 20, Jinzhou stabilized, Chunxing dropped by 20, Aosen dropped by 20; Wu’an wire rod Yuhuawen, Jinding and Taihang; The lock price in Wu’an market is 3515-3520; Price reference of Anping delivery excluding tax: 195/6.5 Aosen 3680 Anfeng 3675 Jiujiang 3710. Today, the direct delivery of steel billets has an average transaction performance. At present, some Tangshan steel billet warehousing spot traders report 3690 yuan (tax included), with few transactions; In terms of the market, the futures market held the green shock, the market speculation enthusiasm cooled, the high level resources fell slightly, the market traders’ prices were slightly low, the wait-and-see mood increased, and the trading was generally weak. It is expected that in the short term, prices will stabilize and fluctuate.
Strip steel: weak adjustment in North China tropics. At present, the 145 series narrowband mainstream report 3930-3940, including tax, leaves the factory. The overall transaction is generally weak, and downstream procurement is obviously wait-and-see. 355 refers to 3595-3605 naked spot in the broadband market, which is basically stable compared with the afternoon. In the afternoon, the snail held the green shock, but the traders had limited willingness to lower. The current market transaction is average, only the low price is smooth. The price including tax in Tangshan market is 3900-3920, the price in Handan market is 3930-3940, and the price in Tianjin factory is 3930-3980. At present, the epidemic policy in various regions is comprehensive and loose, and the market has no big negative pressure except for insufficient demand follow-up. Therefore, the downward space has not been fully opened for the time being, and the bottom mentality is still firm. Consider the cost support, and predict or adjust the main stability.
Profile: the price of North China type is mainly stable and slightly weak. Tangshan: 5 corners 4050, Tangshan: 10 corners 4020, Tangshan: 16 corners 4020, Cangzhou: 5 corners 4210, Tianjin: 4 corners 4340, Handan: 5 corners 4060, Handan: 10 corners 4080. Recently, some regions have optimized epidemic prevention and control measures, the market atmosphere is gradually recovering, and the freight logistics situation has also been continuously improved. However, as the weather turns cold, the construction of terminals in many places is gradually coming to an end. The demand is just in the shrinking space, and the willingness of downstream procurement is insufficient. The middlemen are also cautious about the high price replenishment, and it is expected that the short-term price will be stabilized and operated.
Pipe materials: prices in East China have both risen and fallen. Liaocheng seamless pipe sheet in Shandong Province has fallen by 40, galvanized pipe by 30, Laiwu spiral pipe by 10, Hangzhou welded pipe and scaffold by 30, and spiral pipe by 60. The favorable policy of epidemic situation has a certain effect on the market, and the mentality of merchants has changed. However, at present, the market transaction is not volatile, and some pipe plants are rushing to work for the backlog of orders due to epidemic situation. Recently, the price of raw materials has risen, and the pressure on the management plant to operate funds is too great. In addition, the effect of off-season has changed, and the market demand has recovered slowly. After comprehensive consideration, it is expected that the price of pipes will be adjusted steadily and slightly.
Trend analysis of futures snails
A brief comment on Qiaoluo: Qiaoluo 05 was dominated by shocks throughout the day. The daily K closed positive in a narrow range, closing 3808, and falling by 0.60% in 23. The daily chart BOLL converged upward on the lower track, and the KD index showed a dead cross trend. The country’s finished timber fell more than rose, and the average price of each variety fluctuated by 10-20. The macro positive expectation still exists. Most resource costs are on the high side, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. However, the off-season on the demand side is deepening. The end users mainly purchase on demand, and the transaction continues to be weak. Some traders mainly reduce inventory in their operations, and are not optimistic about the future market. It is suggested that merchants who have more goods should reduce their warehouses appropriately when the goods are higher, and wait and see when the goods are less. High level vibration of the stage screw, support 3770, pressure 3825, 3850, 3890.
Macro hotspot interpretation
[China Steel Association: the social stock of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities decreased by 120000 tons in late November]
In late November, the social stock of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 7.39 million tons, a month on month decrease of 120000 tons, or 1.6%, and the decline continued to narrow; 970000 tons less than that in late October, down 11.6%; 490000 tons less than the beginning of the year, down 6.2%; A year-on-year decrease of 1.42 million tons, or 16.1%.
[China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing: The global manufacturing purchasing manager index continued to decline in November]
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the purchasing managers’ index of global manufacturing industry in November on the 6th. The index continued to operate in the contraction range below 50%, and the global economy continued to decline. In November, the global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was 48.7%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and lower than 50% for two consecutive months.
Interpretation: From a subregional perspective, the purchasing managers’ index of manufacturing industry in Asia and the Americas both fell below 50%, and the manufacturing industry is facing contraction pressure; Although the purchasing managers’ index of European manufacturing industry has rebounded from the previous month, it is still below 48%, and the manufacturing industry maintains a weak trend of operation; The purchasing managers’ index of manufacturing industry in Africa rose slightly for two consecutive months, slightly higher than 50%, and the manufacturing industry recovered. With the change of the composite index, the global manufacturing industry continues to show a downward trend and still faces great pressure of contraction.
[The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points in December is 79.4%]
CME “Federal Reserve Observation” data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.25% – 4.50% in December is 79.4%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 20.6%; By February 2023, the probability of an accumulative interest rate increase of 75 basis points is 37.1%, the probability of an accumulative interest rate increase of 100 basis points is 51.9%, and the probability of an accumulative interest rate increase of 125 basis points is 11.0%.
[During the "Fourteenth Five Year Plan" period, strive to stabilize the annual supply of iron ore at about 300 million tons (standard ore)]
During the “Fourteenth Five Year Plan” period, the natural resources management department will accelerate the construction of 25 iron ore resource bases and the exploration and development of 28 national planned mining areas in terms of the planning and layout of iron ore resource exploration, and promote the formation of a supply pattern dominated by large and medium-sized mines. At the same time, we will ensure the steady improvement of the existing iron ore supply capacity, actively promote a number of iron ore construction projects, implement the prospecting breakthrough action in key exploration areas, accelerate the increase of reserves and production, and strive to stabilize the annual supply of iron ore at about 300 million tons (standard ore), playing a basic supporting role for China’s iron ore resources security.
Future trend prediction
Recently, the real estate support policy and prevention and control policy have been continuously optimized, which has promoted the rising sentiment of the steel market, and the steel price has shown a trend of shock and rebound. Although the terminal demand is expected to catch up, the weather turns cold, and construction in many places in the north is gradually coming to an end. Winter storage has not yet started in eastern and southern China, and the spot market is still slow to follow up. However, in view of the strong expectation of the raw material end to rise, the positive news also continues to stimulate the nerves of manufacturers, and the market’s willingness to store in winter has also improved compared with the previous. It is expected that the short-term steel price will be more volatile.